Why western recognition of Palestine won’t change a thing for Palestinians
For 77 years, an independent Palestinian state has not been established
France and Saudi Arabia have led a renewed push for global recognition of Palestinian statehood at the United Nations. After months of horrifying images from Gaza and growing public outrage over Israel’s conduct since Oct. 7, 2023, several Western nations—including France, the U.K., Canada, Australia and Belgium—formally recognized Palestine during a high-profile UN summit last month.
French President Emmanuel Macron declared at the U.N. General Assembly on Sept. 21, “The moment has arrived,” announcing France’s recognition “to thunderous applause.” British Prime Minister Keir Starmer issued a similar declaration by video, saying, “Today... the United Kingdom formally recognizes the State of Palestine.”
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan called for “an independent Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital.” U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the alternative to a two-state solution would be “a ‘one-state’ scenario, characterized by Israeli dominance and the oppression of Palestinians.”
With these recognitions, about 80% of U.N. member states—152 of 193—now recognize Palestine. Four of the five permanent U.N. Security Council members do so, all except the United States. But while diplomats delivered speeches in New York, Israeli forces continued operations across Gaza. Israel’s war has killed more than 67,000 Palestinians, over half women and children, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry.
Here’s a quick backstory: Israel’s creation in 1948 followed the Nakba, or “catastrophe,” when roughly 750,000 Palestinians were expelled from their homes. The 1947 U.N. Partition Plan had given 56% of historic Palestine to a Jewish state, even though Jews made up only a third of the population and owned about 7% of the land.
After the 1948 Arab-Israeli war, Palestinians regrouped under the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), founded in 1964 and led by Yasser Arafat. The group initially used militancy to gain global attention but shifted in 1988, recognizing Israel and seeking a future state on the 1967 borders—Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem.
The 1993 Oslo Accords led to the creation of the Palestinian Authority (PA)from the PLO in 1994 as a temporary self-governing body. But rather than bringing independence, Oslo became what critics called “the management of occupation,” as Israeli settlements expanded, Gaza faced a 17-year blockade, and the West Bank was fragmented under occupation.
Fast forward to the 2025 U.N. Assembly, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denounced Western recognition as “rewarding terrorism.” “There will be no Palestinian state to the west of the Jordan River,” he said, calling the idea “national suicide” and boasting, “Everyone knows that I am the one who for decades blocked the establishment of a Palestinian state.”
Yet Israel alone isn’t why Palestinian statehood remains out of reach. The main obstacle is the United States.
Since Oct. 7, 2023, the U.S. has provided Israel with more than $17.9 billion in military aid under a 10-year, $38 billion agreement. It also stores weapons in Israel and shields it diplomatically at the UN. The reason lies in domestic politics—specifically, the influence of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).
Founded in 1954, AIPAC has donated millions to both Democratic and Republican candidates, from city mayors to members of Congress and the presidency. Historian Walter Hixson argues the group “essentially controls the U.S. Congress.” In the current election cycle alone, AIPAC has spent more than $51 million, backing pro-Israel candidates and targeting pro-Palestinian ones.
What arguably marked the first clear sign of deep AIPAC influence was the USS Liberty incident in 1967, when Israeli naval frigates and warplanes attacked a U.S. intelligence ship off the Sinai coast during the Arab-Israeli War. Initially thought to be a case of mistaken identity—Israel claiming it believed the ship was Egyptian—U.S. marines tried to contact the Israeli navy to stop the assault, but to no avail. Thirty-four crew members were killed and more than 170 wounded.
The Washington Post later called the event “one of the most bloody and bizarre peacetime encounters in U.S. naval history.” Despite evidence indicating Israeli naval command knew it was an American vessel, President Lyndon B. Johnson did not publicly contradict Israel’s account.
That same day, pro-Israel sentiment flooded Congress. At least 12 lawmakers addressed the Senate and House floors stressing the importance of the U.S.-Israel alliance, according to Congressional records.
Sen. Abraham Ribicoff of Connecticut, while calling it a “tragic loss of life” and an “armed attack,” praised Israel’s military: “With dedication, courage, and heart, the Israeli people have fought a remarkable fight.” Sen. Robert F. Kennedy of New York called the attack a “tragic mistake” but simultaneously applauded Israel’s “bravery... for the last four days, as for the 20 years before.”
Since then, AIPAC’s embedment in American politics has only deepened. The lobby’s success rate allows it to shape U.S. foreign policy decisively. In every UN resolution condemning Israel for increasing settlements in the West Bank or attacking Palestinian civilians, the US used its veto power in the UN Security Council 49 times.
As long as Washington provides unconditional military aid and diplomatic immunity, Israel can ignore international pressure entirely.
Even if recognition mattered, Palestinians face a leadership vacuum. President Mahmoud Abbas, in power since 2005, has not held elections in nearly two decades. Only 6% of Palestinians say they would vote for him, and 85% want him to resign, according to recent polling. Critics accuse the PA of corruption and collaboration with Israeli authorities.
Regardless, Abbas welcomed the recent recognitions, saying they would allow “the State of Palestine to coexist peacefully and securely alongside the State of Israel.” But for many Palestinians, those words ring hollow.
Real change requires genuine political and diplomatic accountability on Israel. Not only that, but American politics must also change drastically. Recognition without enforcement creates the illusion of progress while Palestinians remain under siege.
After 77 years of displacement, instability and decades of failed peace efforts, recognition alone is symbolic. As Netanyahu said at the 2025 U.N. Assembly, “Everyone knows that I am the one who for decades blocked the establishment of a Palestinian state.”
His confidence rests on American backing. The French and Saudi push at the UN may be well-intentioned but misunderstands the power balance. Palestinian freedom won’t come from speeches or votes—it will come when the cost of occupation outweighs the benefits for those enabling it.
For now, recognition remains headlines without genuine independence for the Palestinian people
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